Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Tracy inventory stayed tight while more homes sold

By Donny Piwowarski, Broker

Real estate, Tracy California

Nationally, Realtor.com reported active listings topped 1.16 million homes for sale in September 2026. Tracy moved in the opposite direction. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 205 homes for sale across ZIPs 95376, 95377 and 95304 in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is down 13.1% from the same months of 2025. Fewer choices for buyers. Less competition for sellers.

Sales kept pace with that tight supply. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 209 homes sold across Tracy in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 10.6% from a year before. Pending sales rose too, up 8.3% to 222. Buyers are still moving.

Mortgage rates add pressure for buyers. CNBC reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.30% on September 30, 2026. Mortgage News Daily put it even higher, at 7.58% the same day. Higher rates slow some buyers down. In Tracy, demand has held up anyway.

ZIP 95376: quick sales, prices dipped a little

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 104 homes sold in ZIP 95376 in the three months ending July 31, 2026, up 2% from a year before. The median sale price was $581,500, down 3.2% from the same period of 2025. Prices eased slightly. But homes moved fast: the median sat on the market just 23 days, five days shorter than a year ago. And 37.5% of homes sold above list price, up 7.1 points year over year.

With only 2.4 months of supply and 33.6% of homes going under contract within two weeks of listing, ZIP 95376 is moving at a steady pace. New listings fell 4.2% year over year, so each home that does come to market gets real attention.

ZIP 95377: above-list offers jumped sharply

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 75 homes sold in ZIP 95377 in the three months ending July 31, 2026, down 1.3% from a year before. The median sale price was $750,000, down 2.8%. Sales slipped a little and prices softened. Yet buyers competed harder: 34.7% of homes sold above list price, up 18.9 points from a year ago. The average sale closed at 101.1% of list price, up 2.4 points.

Homes for sale in 95377 fell 18.2% year over year to just 90. New listings dropped 5%. Months of supply fell to 3.7, down 0.7 months. And 37% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 15 points. That is the sharpest two-week jump of any Tracy ZIP.

ZIP 95304: sales tripled, prices rose

ZIP 95304 had the biggest shift of the three. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 30 homes sold in the three months ending July 31, 2026, up 172.7% from a year before. Pending sales doubled, up 100%. The median sale price rose to $922,500, up 8.5%. More activity and higher prices, together.

Not every signal in 95304 points the same way. The average sale closed at 97.8% of list price, down 0.7 points. Only 16.7% of homes sold above list price. And 25% went under contract within two weeks, down 8.3 points. So sales volume surged, but individual homes still took some negotiation. New listings rose 65.5%, giving buyers a little more to choose from. Months of supply fell sharply, down 5.8 months to 3.4.

What this means for you

Nationally, Realtor.com also reported that 20.8% of listings took a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. Tracy has not shown that pattern in its own numbers. Supply here stayed tight. Sales rose. Buyers moved quickly on well-priced homes.

Prices did dip in 95376 and 95377. That is worth knowing if you are setting a list price. But days on market shortened in all three ZIPs, and above-list sales climbed in two of them. Pricing right still matters more than ever.