Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market inventory stayed tight while the national supply picture opened up

By Donny Piwowarski, Broker

Real estate, Primary market

Here is the one thing that changes what you should do right now. The National Association of Realtors reported national supply reached 4.9 months, the highest in over ten years. That sounds like relief for buyers everywhere. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,258 homes for sale across this market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is down 3.4% from the same months of 2025. The national slowdown is real. It just does not describe every part of this market the same way.

New listings told a steadier story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 2,042 new listings across the Primary market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That was unchanged from a year before. Sellers are still coming to market at the same pace. Fewer homes are sitting available, which means what does list tends to move.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported active listings up 6.3% from a year ago, the fastest pace in at least six months. Pending sales nationally fell, with homes under contract down 4.1% year over year, also per Realtor.com. Here, pending sales were down 2%, a softer dip than the national figure. Sold homes were down just 0.8%. The Primary market is moving more slowly than a year ago, but not nearly as slowly as the national numbers suggest.

Rates are the other piece of this

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. Realtor.com noted rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025, and that they rose nearly 40 basis points over the four weeks before that. Higher rates slow buyers down. That is part of why pending sales dipped here and nationally. It is also why tight local supply matters more: fewer choices at higher rates means well-priced homes still draw real attention.

How each ZIP code read differently

The market-wide number is a starting point. Below the surface, each ZIP code told its own story in the three months ending July 31, 2026. Some tightened sharply. One loosened. That gap matters if you are deciding when and where to list, or what to offer.

ZIP 95124 had just 0.9 months of supply, down 0.4 months from a year before, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 95120 sat at 1.1 months, down 0.3 months. Both are well under two months. On the other end, ZIP 95391 reached 5.5 months of supply, up 1.4 months from the same period last year. That one ZIP is the closest thing in this market to the national picture.

Where sellers got the most competition from buyers

The share of homes that sold above list price is one honest measure of how much buyers are competing. In ZIP 95121, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 60.5% of homes selling above list. ZIP 95148 came in at 58.5%. ZIP 95111 reached 56.3%. These are not soft markets. Even with rates at 7.28%, buyers in those ZIPs were still outbidding each other.

ZIP 95391 sat at 22% sold above list, down 6.1 points from a year ago. ZIP 95304 was at 16.7%, down 1.5 points. Those two ZIPs are where pricing discipline matters most right now. Buyers there have more room to negotiate than they do almost anywhere else in this market.

Speed varied just as much as supply

The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median days on market in ZIP 94550 at 15 days in the three months ending July 31, 2026, 2 days shorter than a year before. ZIP 95138 came in at 14 days, 7 days shorter. ZIP 95337 took the longest at 45 days, though that was actually 9 days shorter than the same period of 2025. Speed improved in most ZIPs even as the national picture softened.

Prices: most held, a few slipped

Prices were mixed, which is honest. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed ZIP 95138 with a median sale price of $1,515,000, down 13.4% from a year ago. ZIP 95136 came in at $1,250,000, down 12.3%. Those are real dips. But ZIP 95304 reached $922,500, up 8.5%. ZIP 95240 was $530,000, up 5%. ZIP 95120 hit $2,250,000, up 2.3%. Most ZIPs held or gained. A few gave back some ground.

A price dip in one ZIP does not mean the same thing everywhere. ZIP 95138 sold faster and with a higher sale-to-list ratio than a year ago, even as its median price fell. That pattern can point to a mix shift, not a market in trouble. Fewer large homes selling, more mid-range ones closing, can pull a median down even when individual homes hold their value.

What this means if you own here

For sellers: less local competition is real. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3.4% fewer homes for sale than a year ago across the Primary market. New listings were flat. If your home is priced well and shows well, there are fewer alternatives for a buyer to walk to. That is a real advantage, even with rates at 7.28%.

For buyers: the national headline about 4.9 months of supply, per the National Association of Realtors, does not mean this market loosened. Most ZIPs here sit well under three months. ZIP 95391 at 5.5 months is the one place where the national picture and local reality rhyme. Everywhere else, you are still competing.