Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Tracy sales rose even with mortgage rates above 7%

By Donny Piwowarski, Broker

Real estate, Tracy California

Mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025, according to Realtor.com. Nationally, that slowed things down. In Tracy, it did not.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 223 homes sold across Tracy's three ZIP codes in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 18% from the same three months in 2025. Compare that with CNBC reporting that pending home sales fell 8.5% nationally in September, year over year. Tracy moved the other way.

For homeowners, that means buyers are still showing up here. For buyers, it means more competition than national headlines may suggest.

What the numbers say, ZIP by ZIP

Prices: mostly steady, one ZIP up sharply

The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the median sale price in 95376 at $570,500, down 2% from a year ago. That is a small dip, not a slide. In 95377, the median was $750,000, up 4.2%. In 95304, it reached $967,500, up 17.3%. That last number is the biggest move in the market.

Homes are selling faster

In 95376, the Real Estate Data Aggregator puts the median days on market at 28, which is 7 days shorter than a year ago. In 95377, it is also 28 days, down 15 days from last year. In 95304, homes sat for just 24 days, 13 days shorter than a year ago. Across all three ZIPs, homes are moving more quickly than they were in 2025.

More homes are selling above asking price

The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows that in 95376, 32.7% of homes sold above list price, up 13.7 points from a year ago. In 95377, 28.6% sold above list, up 13.9 points. In 95304, 22.2% sold above list, up 0.8 points. That is a clear shift toward more competitive offers across Tracy.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that price cuts hit 20.8% of listings in September, the highest share since October 2022. Tracy's above-list numbers point in the opposite direction.

Supply is still tight

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 220 homes for sale across Tracy in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up just 1.9% from a year ago. Months of supply in 95376 sits at 2.5, down 0.3 months. In 95377 it is 3.9 months, down 0.2. In 95304 it fell sharply, to 2.7 months, down 2.8 months from a year ago. Less than 4 months of supply in any ZIP means buyers have limited choices.

The rate picture for buyers

Rates are not easing soon. Fannie Mae, as reported by CNBC, forecasts the 30-year fixed rate at 7.5% for all of 2027. The weekly average already hit 7.4% on October 8, according to reporting from a national outlet. That puts the typical monthly payment at $2,777, near a record high by that same report. Tracy buyers are absorbing those costs and still closing deals.

One street can read differently from the whole ZIP code. The numbers above cover broad areas. Your block may be tighter or looser than the ZIP suggests.