Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

More listings are coming, but the Primary market is still moving

By Donny Piwowarski, Broker

Real estate, Primary market

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. That is the headline number everyone sees. But it does not tell the whole story for Tracy, Manteca, Livermore, Lodi, Ripon, and San Jose.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,957 new listings across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 6.2% from the same months a year before. More sellers are coming off the sidelines.

Here is what matters: buyers kept up. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,626 pending sales in the same period. That is up 2.7% from a year before. More homes came to market, and more went under contract. The market did not freeze.

What the rate backdrop means

Rates above 7% do slow some buyers. The National Association of Realtors reported existing-home sales nationally at 3.99 million units in September 2026. That is a modest pace by historical standards. Realtor.com reported September pending home sales were down 11.3% year over year nationally.

The Primary market held up better than that national picture. Sales here were up 2.1%, not down. That gap is worth knowing if you are deciding whether to list or wait.

ZIP by ZIP: the story is not the same everywhere

Some ZIPs moved fast. Some took longer. That spread matters more than any market-wide average.

Ripon (95366) saw median days drop 10 days shorter than a year before, to 18 days, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Manteca 95337 took 48 days, also 14 days shorter than a year before. Even the slower ZIPs are moving faster than they did.

Where prices moved up, and where they dipped

Prices did not move in one direction. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows that is normal across a market this wide. Tracy 95304 saw the median sale price rise 17.3% to $967,500. San Jose 95125 rose 6.7% to $1,950,000. On the other side, San Jose 95136 fell 19.2% to $1,205,000, and San Jose 95138 fell 16.7% to $1,470,000.

Homes selling above list price: competition is still real

Even with rates at 7.32%, buyers competed. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted more than half of homes in San Jose 95122 selling above list price, at 54.1%. San Jose 95121 came in at 53.7%. San Jose 95148 was at 53.3%.

Not every ZIP saw that. Tracy 95391 came in at 15.1%, down 11 points from a year before. That is a real difference in buyer behavior from one part of the market to another.

The one number that ties it together

More listings came to market. More homes went under contract. More homes sold. All three moved up from a year before, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is not a frozen market. It is a market where pricing and timing still decide the outcome.

One street can read very differently from the ZIP code around it. The numbers above are a starting point, not the final word on your home.